Turkey Ahead of Cop 31: Climate Ambitions Overshadowed by Authoritarian Politics | Heinrich Böll Stiftung

Turkey Ahead of Cop 31: Climate Ambitions Overshadowed by Authoritarian Politics

Dawid Danilo Bartelt

31 October 2026

Analysis

Turkey is facing a COP full of contradictions: its climate ambitions and geopolitical strength are overshadowed by authoritarian politics and economic crisis.

The UN Climate Change Conference is coming to a country that has learnt to grasp the gravity of the climate crisis. On the domestic front, however, the battle against the opposition has dominated the political landscape in Turkey.

“Climate change is becoming more severe with each passing year and will continue to do so. That is why we are taking further measures. We must not forget that this is a struggle. Everyone should know that, in the face of this insidious enemy, we are doing everything necessary and will continue to do so.”

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, host of COP31 and President of Turkey, spoke in no uncertain terms in July 2025 when asked about the devastating forest fires in the Aegean region. Murat Kurum, Minister for the Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change and President of COP31, also did not hesitate to link the severe flooding in Istanbul in October 2026 to climate change. In the weeks leading up to COP, Kurum has made increasingly ambitious statements, calling on several occasions for the 1.5°C limit to be upheld and even – unlike his President – speaking of moving away from fossil fuels. He has publicly committed to shaping COP31 into a “strong implementation process”, thereby continuing the process initiated by the Brazilian COP Presidency in 2025.

Turkish Politicians Acknowledge the Challenges Posed by Climate Change

When asked about criticism of the government’s inadequate measures against forest fires and flooding, both reacted in a similar manner: one accused his political opponents in the opposition of spreading misinformation and seeking only to gain political capital from the fires. The other blamed the Istanbul city administration for uncontrolled urban growth, a lack of infrastructure and blocked riverbeds, which he said had cost lives.

The UN Climate Change Conference is coming to a country that has learnt to grasp the gravity of the climate crisis.

These episodes illustrate well where Turkey stands politically at present. The UN Climate Change Conference is coming to a country that has learnt to grasp the gravity of the climate crisis. According to surveys, more than three-quarters of Turks believe that climate change is real and dangerous. Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021. Since then, it has revised its NDC twice, passed a climate law in 2025, set a net-zero target for 2053 and launched the pilot phase of its first emissions trading scheme (2026–27).

This is also a response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which requires EU importers of certain carbon-intensive goods to pay for the greenhouse gas emissions contained therein. If they have already paid carbon prices for these emissions in the country of origin, these costs can be deducted. This would then preserve the competitiveness of their export goods.

Is the Largest Opposition Party Being Crushed?

On the domestic front, however, the battle against the opposition has dominated the political landscape in Turkey, ever since that March morning last year when the head of Istanbul’s city administration, Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, was arrested. He has been in custody ever since. İmamoğlu faces charges of corruption, espionage and much more. Even most AKP supporters have no doubt as to the real reason for his detention: he is – or rather, was – a threat to the President’s political future. His popularity had been soaring for months. In 2024, he won the Istanbul mayoral election again with an even better result than four years earlier; he was the designated candidate for the next presidential elections and was already leading in the polls.

Turkey’s political system has long been evolving towards ‘competitive authoritarianism’

In the weeks and months that followed, not only were hundreds of officials from the Istanbul administration dismissed, but mayors from İmamoğlu’s party – the main opposition CHP – and senior officials across the country were also removed from office and detained on charges of corruption, embezzlement of public funds and similar offences. Others are being co-opted; several CHP mayors have already switched sides. In the 2024 nationwide local elections, the CHP won all the major cities, including many AKP strongholds, and became the country’s strongest party once again for the first time since Erdoğan came to power. Political observers at home and abroad say that the AKP is now reclaiming the municipalities it lost by means of a subservient judiciary.

They see this process as taking on a new dimension. Turkey’s political system has long been evolving towards ‘competitive authoritarianism’: the government controls the vast majority of the judiciary. Under the super-presidential system, parliament has largely lost its powers of oversight, and its role is now confined mainly to rubber-stamping bills introduced by the executive with a government majority. The separation of powers continues to exist on paper, but has been effectively suspended in practice. The situation is no better with the ‘fourth estate’: even the largest TV channels and newspapers no longer dare to openly criticise the government on which they depend.

Where Is the Peace Process With the PKK Heading?

The analyses go on to suggest that, as the largest opposition party is being systematically dismantled, the element of competition is being lost. In other words: the government is attempting to ensure that, in the next elections – which must take place by May 2028 at the latest – an opposition candidate stands no chance and the ruling AKP party secures another clear victory.